Yes, No, Maybe, So, Oh, Yes, No, Ugh, Yeah, Nah.......

There are quotes all over net right now, waaaaaay too many to post, from one government official of a member EU country to, wait for it...... two hours later, another government official from another EU member country to, wait for it...., yet another EU government official all contradicting themselves on what can and cannot legally be done and who's willing to do what in regards to Greece.

As an outside observer, it looks kindergartners trying to agree on pizza toppings.

When I was an undergrad econ student I had to write a position paper on a macro economic topic.  I choose the Euro, which was close to becoming a reality, and argued that it would ultimately fail.  The paper was written about 10 years ago (the Euro came into circulation about 2 years later on Jan 1, 2002).  It seems like such a long time ago, but it is fact very short on the time line organized European history.  Modern day European countries have traditional and organizational roots going back to at least the fall of Rome in the 5th century.  So, the Euro hasn't even participated in 1% of European history. 

The basis of my argument was the countries are fundamentally and in many cases fiercely independent, mistrust each other, have centuries of warring and cheating and lying with each other.  They grow up in households where grandpa bad mouths the French, the English, the Germans, the Greeks, etc.  It's ingrained in them much the same way we have ingrained biases here in the US.  Deep inside most Europeans is a secret desire to see another country fail.

What's going on with Greece, and what's to follow after Greece with other weak EU member countries will be bringing to the table is a huge test that may ultimately prove my paper right. 


------- UPDATE TO ABOVE POST --------
Here's a link to what I've seen as the highest ranked EU government official quoted (or in this cause, it's what she didn't say) yet:
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1961-Angela-Merkel-Clanks-When-She-Walks.html

If Germany really refuses to sign on, then it makes me wonder if other entities like the IMF and the US will have to step in.  Or maybe Germany only signs on with back door funding from these outside players.

Sovereign Debt Off-Balance Sheet Financing

Came across a Felix Salmon post at Reuters detailing just one financing deal between Greece and GS.  Basically, Greece is further in debt then their balance sheet indicates.  Apparently this is old hat for countries (examples are given in the post).  And this is just one deal.  In one country.  Who knows how much is really out there.
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2010/02/09/how-greece-hid-its-borrowing-in-the-swaps-market/

And this is how contagion works....
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100209-718854.html

U.S.AA.

Faber Says U.S. Would Be Rated Junk if It Were a Company
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Faber%20Says%20U.S.%20Would%20Be%20Rated%20Junk%20if%20It%20Were%20a%20Company&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/v9feFJPBWjm0.asf

Geithner Says US Will 'Never' Lose Aaa Debt Rating
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-08/geithner-says-u-s-will-never-lose-aaa-debt-rating-update1-.html

Anemic growth could threaten US Aaa rating--Moody's
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0317992520100203

Regardless of the doom and gloom, arrogance, and saber rattling presented here it is important to remember this is all a confidence game.  As John Mauldin says, "The dollar may be the worst currency in the world, except for all the others."  So just keep paying attention to those Treasury auctions.  The only exception I'd place on Mauldin's statement, assuming it was given in the context of being able to choose amongst all asset classes, is gold may be better than the dollar.  

The problem with gold, though, is it is extremely difficult to value.  It pays no dividends, has no cash flows, produces nothing tangible.  So how can you assess its true value?  The value of gold is only as strong as what the next guy in line is willing pay (or kill) for it.  On the plus side, it is tied to no country.  Which is why, as history's steamrollers have rolled by, every powerful civilization that has walked the earth has killed, pillaged, and raided for this metal.  We all value it.  Always have, always will.